Weekly|Hightened Volatility, Coherent Lite + OCS, NVL576 NPO Optics Doubling, Glasswing Reshapes the Cyber Value Chain, Kioxia NAND Supercycle, PANW, PL, MRVL
It’s an understatement to call the past week eventful. As Computex unwrapped in Taiwan, AI semi continued its relentless rally, and market participants kept demonstrating extreme bullishness. The most iconic moment was when Marvell, one of our favorite names, rallied ~45% in 3 days after Jensen Huang endorsed it as the next trillion-dollar company. However, at the end of the week, the winners saw a brutal sell-off with SOXX having a 10% one-day drawdown, essentially sending it back to the level it was at… two weeks ago. We believe the correction was overdue, as leverage bets mounted over the same positions were just too big. According to broker estimates, levered equity ETFs now have over $300bn in AUM and control more than $750bn in global equities, with a 1% move in equity indices implying roughly $12bn to $18bn in daily rebalancing needs. The long bets were most concentrated in NDX, Semis, Memory, AI, and Korea. We would not be surprised if the weakness continues for a while longer.
In the future, the key fundamental event we believe the market should pay attention to is still the progress of frontier labs. To recall, the recent rally was sparked by the acceleration in Anthropic ARR growth driven by Claude Code. Any volatility in that growth trajectory would definitely be closely monitored, especially amid growing discussion of LLM usage optimizations following Tokenmaxxing efforts. We have shared our thorough analysis on this development with our Institutional Subscribers over the past two weeks. If you are interested, please contact sales@funda.ai for more information.
On the other hand, we also have the widely anticipated SpaceX IPO next week, which is raising investor concerns about its impact on market liquidity. Please refer to our earlier SPCX S-1 analysis report for further analysis.
This Week’s Reports
Coherent Lite — the OCS pairing, not DCI, is the real volume driver. We argue the consensus 2–20km reach narrative misses the system-architecture angle: Coherent Lite is what lets OCS-based TPU/AI clusters keep scaling into the 2.4T/3.2T module era.
Glasswing/Mythos — AI-native cyber is moving from pilot to deployment, and the value chain will rerate around it. Our framework for how Anthropic’s expansion shifts cybersecurity toward closed-loop validation and remediation, and which platform names capture the upside versus which scanner/SAST models get squeezed.
