Preview|SNOW 4Q25: AI-Driven Acceleration in 4Q25, but Sustainability of the Trend Remains Uncertain
Cortex Code, AI Labs, Storage Price, Layoff
Before this quarter’s Preview, we want to revisit our prior views on Snowflake.
We turned constructive on Snowflake at the end of 2024 and maintained that stance through 3Q25.
Heading into 3Q25, we believed Snowflake’s beat magnitude would come in below bogey, but that the company could see re-acceleration in 4Q25. Although we were cautious on revenue, we did not anticipate the larger sell-off triggered by margin guidance.
For 4Q25, we believe Snowflake did in fact re-accelerate, and that the acceleration was genuinely AI-driven. However, we cannot confirm whether this acceleration trend will sustain through the entirety of FY2027.
Sales Attainment
Sales partner specialists typically measure growth on a Consumption basis (which is highly correlated with Revenue), as SNOW primarily evaluates partners on Consumption metrics.
North America Partner A
Consumption Attainment
1Q25 Consumption grew 26% YoY, exceeding expectations
2Q25 Consumption grew 30% YoY, exceeding expectations
3Q25 Consumption grew 32% YoY, in line with expectations
4Q25 Consumption grew slightly below 32% YoY, in line with expectations
1Q26 Consumption expected to grow at a rate similar to 4Q25
FY2026 Consumption expected to modestly accelerate relative to FY2025
Reasons for Slight Deceleration vs. 3Q25
Many customers’ new AI projects are slated to formally kick off at the beginning of the year
Despite growth coming in slightly below 3Q25, the customer pipeline remains very strong
North America Partner B
Consumption Attainment
1Q25 Consumption accelerated and exceeded expectations
2Q25 Consumption accelerated significantly and meaningfully beat expectations
3Q25 Consumption decelerated and missed expectations
4Q25 Consumption re-accelerated and exceeded expectations
1Q26 growth expected to hold at 4Q25 levels through the full year of FY2026
In the 3Q25 Preview, the specialist cited several reasons for the miss
The Gen2 optimization that went live in May had a direct negative impact
Beyond Gen2, Snowflake was also Private Previewing an Adaptive Compute optimization
Additionally, Snowpark Connect created a headwind in 3Q25
All of the above headwinds were resolved in 4Q25
The impact from Gen2 and Adaptive Compute optimizations diminished in 4Q25
Snowpark Connect is now fully ramped—customers had previously delayed Snowpark Data Engineering projects while waiting for Snowpark Connect to go live; those projects are now running normally
1Q26 Expected to Sustain the Same Growth Rate
Cortex—particularly Cortex Code—has received very positive feedback and has officially reached GA
Iceberg and various Snowpark ML features have all reached GA, unlocking new growth vectors
View on FY2026: The biggest growth drivers will be Cortex Code and Iceberg
Europe Partner
Consumption Attainment
4Q24 Consumption grew 30% YoY, exceeding expectations
1Q25 Consumption grew 35% YoY, exceeding expectations
2Q25 Consumption grew 36% YoY, exceeding expectations
3Q25 Consumption grew 37% YoY, in line with expectations
4Q25 Consumption grew 38% YoY, exceeding expectations
1Q26 Consumption expected to grow 40% YoY
FY2026 Consumption expected to accelerate to 45% YoY in 2H
New Products
Key products include Snowpark, Iceberg, Snowflake Intelligence / Cortex, and OpenFlow (via the Datavolo acquisition).
