Preview|PLTR 4Q25: Continue to Accelerate, but Competition Concerns Intensify
With Channel Partner Expecting Growth To Sustain Or Reaccelerate Into 2026, Despite Rising Competitive Risks
Based on feedback from Channel Partner checks and analysis of publicly available data, Palantir is likely to sustain its overall acceleration trend in this quarter, with a relatively high probability of delivering a beat magnitude comparable to recent quarters.
The primary driver is a substantial increase in new US government orders booked in Q3, which is expected to contribute meaningfully to government revenue in Q4.
On the US commercial side, momentum continues to track strong growth. International commercial revenue, according to Channel Partner feedback, remains on a recovery trajectory, although this does not yet represent a structural inflection point.
Looking ahead to 2026, Channel Partner believes Palantir can maintain or modestly accelerate its growth trajectory. At the same time, competitive intensity is increasing, particularly from large model providers and data platform vendors launching agentic products. While the gap of products appears to be narrowing, there has not yet been a material impact on Palantir’s business, though developments are being actively monitored.
A. Overall: Growth Versus Competition
A.1 Market Focus On Whether Growth Can Continue To Accelerate
The market’s primary focus remains whether Palantir’s growth rate can continue to accelerate. Based on discussions with Channel Partner, this trajectory appears achievable into 2026, although uncertainty has increased.
FY25 Q4
CSP
Q4 year over year growth is expected to further accelerate relative to Q3.
“In my view, the Q4 growth rate accelerated compared with Q3.”
Key drivers include
United States Market: Palantir continues to secure large commercial and government contracts across the US market, “They continue to see strong momentum, especially in the US business... we are also seeing more US commercial contracts worth more than $1m and more than $5m.”
International Market: While not yet a full turnaround, international growth continues to recover in Q4, “Q4 2025 was not a turnaround yet... but they probably have seen at least more than 20% growth in international markets in Q4.”
System Integrator
FY25 Q4 year over year growth is accelerating sharply relative to Q3, with quarter over quarter growth continuing to climb. “It is accelerating. Year on year, growth in Q4 is approaching 100%, and it is rising quarter on quarter.”
Many customers that adopted Palantir on a small scale in late 2024 or early 2025 began scaling deployments by Q4, driving a substantial increase in consumption. “Many clients adopted Palantir on a small scale in late 2024 and early 2025, and they are now starting to scale, which increases consumption substantially.”
FY26 Q1
CSP
Sequential growth may decelerate but remain strong. Due primarily to seasonality, Q1 sequential growth may be flat or slightly lower than Q4, although it should still represent a solid quarter. “However, when you compare Q4 2025 with Q1 2026, sequential growth will be flat or slightly lower... as Q4 is typically Palantir’s biggest quarter.”
System Integrator
Year over year growth is expected to accelerate modestly, from approximately 100% in FY25 Q4 to around 110% to 115% in FY26 Q1. “Year on year, it should be more than 100%, perhaps around 110 to 115%, as a rough estimate.”
Growth drivers include strong performance in January, as new annual customer budgets begin to be deployed. “January is usually strong, and there tends to be growth between Q4 and Q1, as new budgets often start then.”
FY26 Full Year Outlook
CSP
CSP believes Palantir can continue to deliver accelerating growth into 2026, although uncertainty is increasing.
Initial guidance may be conservative at approximately 40% to 45%, with potential upside revisions if execution remains strong. “If I am optimistic, I would target around 55 per cent. If I am cautiously optimistic, I would target 40 to 45 per cent.”, “More likely, they will give cautious guidance of 40 to 45%, and then, after Q1 and Q2, they may raise full-year guidance.”
Palantir’s revenue base is now materially larger, and competition from hyperscale cloud providers and AI labs in the enterprise segment is increasing, creating downside risk to revenue expectations. That said, the sales pipeline remains very strong. “This momentum is expected to continue into 2026, though growth rates may moderate to 40% to 55% due to the company’s larger revenue base and increasing competition.”, “This is because they are now a $1bn-per-quarter business, rather than hundreds of millions per quarter previously.”, “They have a significant number of deals that have been pushed from last quarter to the coming quarters... I do not see much risk in closing those deals, so the pipeline looks strong.”
System Integrator
The system integrator is slightly more optimistic and sees potential for sustained high growth into 2026.
It believes the near 100% growth achieved in 2025 could be maintained or even further accelerated in 2026, driven primarily by scaling and increased consumption from existing customers. “I believe these growth rates approaching 100% can probably hold through 2026 as well.”
The AI Practice has set an overall growth target of approximately 100% for 2026, with a high likelihood of exceeding that target. Based on Palantir’s estimated revenue contribution, Palantir’s growth rate should exceed the overall practice growth rate. “Our target is around 100%. That figure covers the overall business, not just Palantir.”, “Ideally, we would like to surpass the target... but 100% is where we are at the moment.”
Palantir’s share of total AI Practice revenue remains small, at less than 5%, with hyperscalers such as Microsoft continuing to dominate. “Palantir’s share of overall AI practice revenue remains small, less than 5%, with hyperscalers like Microsoft dominating.”, “Palantir may be growing slightly faster, but the market itself is growing. I do not expect major changes, perhaps 6% or 7%.”
Existing customer expansion remains the primary growth driver, although momentum from new customers is strengthening. By the end of 2026, the revenue mix may converge toward 70% from existing customers and 30% from new customers, compared with approximately 75% to 25% currently and 80% to 20% at the beginning of 2025. “At the beginning of 2025, most of their customers were US government customers... I would say it was probably around 80% from existing clients to 20% from new clients.”, “Currently, I would say probably about 75% comes from existing clients.”, “In the commercial sector, scaling among existing customers drives more revenue. So perhaps 70 to 30 in 2026, but that is tentative.”, “The other is that we now see some clients starting bigger. A year ago, you would typically start small and then scale, but some clients are now taking a larger stake in the ground approach and start bigger.”
A.2 Rising Competitive Concerns, Though Near-Term Pipeline Impact Remains Limited
However, concerns around competition are increasing. While the current impact on the sales pipeline remains limited and risks to deal closures are not yet apparent, Channel Partner experts remain cautious from a longer-term perspective. Feedback suggests that the first half of this year will be a critical observation window, at which point it will become clearer whether overall customer budgets are sufficiently large to support a growing number of vendors, or whether intensified competition will ultimately result in share reallocation.
CSP Perspective on Pipeline Strength And Competitive Outlook
From the CSP perspective, Palantir’s sales pipeline remains robust, with low perceived risk around deal closures. As one CSP expert noted, “I do not see much risk in closing those deals, so the pipeline looks strong.”
Looking toward 2026 and beyond, CSP experts caution that Palantir’s win rate is unlikely to remain on a smooth trajectory. One expert stated, “There is definitely competition ahead. It is not going to be smooth.” Another added, “I am optimistic but also cautious that they may not be able to deliver the same growth that they delivered in 2025.”
Why Competitive Pressure Becomes More Visible Post-2025
Competition was not particularly pronounced in 2025 and earlier periods, but is expected to become more visible in 2026. This shift is driven by the increasing availability of enterprise services and AI Agent solutions at the data platform layer from foundation model providers, with the functional gap versus Palantir continuing to narrow.
Model Providers Expanding Into Palantir-Adjacent Domains
CSP View On Intensifying Competition
CSP experts observe that competition is intensifying and that competitors have already begun winning contracts. As one noted, “Competition is intensifying, especially from hyperscalers (e.g., Google, AWS, Microsoft) and AI labs (OpenAI, Anthropic), which are embedding advanced AI capabilities and winning government and commercial contracts.”
There is also concern that increasing commoditisation of AI models could dilute Palantir’s share of wallet. One expert commented, “While Palantir’s highly customised, deeply integrated solutions create a strong moat, the shift toward more commoditised AI models and infrastructure could reduce Palantir’s share of wallet in large projects, even as overall AI budgets expand.”
Budget allocation dynamics are also shifting. One CSP expert explained, “Customers might decide to use LLM models from OpenAI, Gemini or Anthropic, so that portion of the cost goes to those players. If I am spending $100 on an AI project, I might now allocate $30 to Palantir and $70 to infrastructure and LLM providers.” Another added, “We may see in 2026 that even when a project is awarded to Palantir, the dollars shift from $100 going to Palantir to $30–40 to Palantir and about $60 to infrastructure providers and LLM players.”
System integrators are increasingly capable of delivering alternative solutions using foundation models. As one CSP expert noted, “The competitive landscape is evolving, with system integrators (e.g., Accenture, BCG, McKinsey) and AI labs increasingly able to deliver bespoke solutions that rival Palantir’s offerings.” Another added, “Often these models can be delivered by Accenture or BCG, using Anthropic, OpenAI or Gemini Enterprise. In that scenario, those use cases can be solved by non-Palantir solutions.”
Channel Partner View On AI Labs Moving Up The Stack
