Preview|PLTR 1Q25:May Reach Current Buyside Bogey, Which is a 40% YoY Growth Rate, But High Uncertainty
Long-term Visibility Hinges More on Commercial Business than Government
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This week we'll be releasing 3 reports: today we're publishing the PLTR Preview, tomorrow we'll release the Applovin Preview, and on Thursday or Friday we'll publish Part 2 of our China AI Fintech series.
I'm extremely excited about tomorrow's Applovin Preview. After researching Apple's latest court ruling for several days, I feel there might be another strong alpha opportunity with Applovin that differs from what everyone else in the market sees. I'll continue refining it before tomorrow's release.
Although Palantir continues to show notable operational resilience, with limited macro impact evident in the near term, a high buyside bogey of 40% YoY growth rate may reach, but high uncertainty
Longer-term uncertainties remain—primarily stemming from the Commercial business rather than Government.
Government: Stable Now, Potential Upside in 2H25
1Q revenue outlook for the U.S. government segment appears within a normalized range. There is even potential upside for full-year growth driven by increased FY26 federal defense budgets and improved government efficiency (referenced in sell-side conversations)
Historical patterns suggest that contract wins in one quarter tend to set the revenue trajectory for the next. Despite a meaningful sequential drop in government transactional contract volume in 4Q24 versus 3Q24—largely due to seasonality—4Q24 was still the strongest Q4 in years
We estimate:
