Preview|CRM CY4Q25: Agentforce Remained Slow with Early Sign of Cannibalization
We surveyed 3 CRM experts (2 channel partners, 1 former APAC sales specialist). JanQ (FY4Q26) results were mixed: legacy business slowed while Agentforce and Data Cloud posted insufficient growth, failing to offset the decline. Moreover, Agentforce adoption remains early-stage; some high-usage customers are shifting from legacy seat-based revenue, reducing recurring totals. Meanwhile, rising AI budgets are increasing spending pressure on horizontal SaaS, though LLM products have not yet directly impacted CRM’s core business.
Lukewarm JanQ performance and Stable 2026 outlook
Global Channel Expert A (on a calendar year basis)
The 2025 global CRM business totaled $492M, +3-4% YoY, below the initial expectation of 6.5-7.5% YoY; 2H25 came in below expectations.
Reasons for the miss:
2H IT budget optimization weighed heavily on CRM; customers allocated more spend toward AI projects involving direct LLM integration, with horizontal SaaS most impacted
Not necessarily a direct budget shift, but customers’ incremental budgets increasingly went to AI projects.
CRM saw a limited year-end budget flush (significantly less than NOW)
By product line, Sales Cloud and Service Cloud still grew 6-7% YoY. This contrasts with weaker segments outlined below.
Marketing Cloud and Commerce Cloud have been weak for over a year.
Over the past 6 months, Heroku, Tableau, and MuleSoft also begun to weaken as penetration matured.
Mulesoft’s growth decelerated from 8-9% to 3-4% amid intensifying competition.
Tableau is not natively embedded with Sales/Service Cloud; MSFT Power BI is taking share.
1H26 expected to grow 5-6.25% YoY, a slight acceleration from 2025, driven by a more constructive macro outlook rather than improved product-level expectations
Legacy business may grow 3-4%; Agentforce and Data Cloud expected to grow faster.
North America Channel Expert B (on CRM fiscal year basis)
2025 North America CRM business was ~$60-70M, +14-15% YoY, 2ppts below target
Initially optimistic about Agentforce, but it underperformed expectations.
Macro headwinds
JanQ +17% YoY, below the expected 20%
By product line: Sales Cloud, Service Cloud, and Marketing Cloud performed better; Commerce Cloud, Mulesoft, and Tableau decelerated notably.
Cautiously optimistic on 2026, hoping for 3-4ppts acceleration to 18-19%, but conviction is low.
Upside driven primarily by stronger Agentforce adoption and Infomatica contribution
Agentforce may cannibalize Service Cloud seat licensing.
The current pipeline is healthy.
Former Singapore Sales Expert C (on CRM fiscal year basis)
JanQ overall performance was stable and in-line with expectations
Legacy business growth slowed as some clients shifted to Agentforce and Data Cloud, which accelerated on a QoQ basis.
These product-specific trends contributed directly to the quarterly outcome, with gains in new products offsetting declines in older segments.
Increased sales discounts at year-end to meet KPIs
Expects regional Agentforce + Data Cloud to continue accelerating QoQ to 20%+ (vs. 19% QoQ in 3Q), ahead of expectations
Asia outperformed the global average, driven by a large base of call center outsourcing clients in Southeast Asia.
Rising Agentforce usage is leading some clients to replace legacy seat-based licenses, which is directly reducing legacy business growth in Sales Cloud and Service Cloud.
Product trends—primarily higher Agentforce adoption among active users—are causing a notable shift in revenue from traditional to new models, especially among higher-usage customers.
Commerce Cloud/Marketing Cloud growth was very weak.
AprQ sequential growth expected to decelerate; FY27 outlook remains uncertain as Agentforce continues to cannibalize legacy revenue
Total revenue this year may see modest acceleration but no significant step-up, as most customers remain on the sidelines regarding AI.
