Deep|TikTok 1Q26 Update: No Visible Impact on META or GOOG Yet
We checked in with four advertising agencies this quarter to assess whether TikTok’s recent product momentum is starting to siphon budget away from META and GOOG.
So far, we have not found evidence of a meaningful impact on either META or GOOG. Last year, our agency contacts broadly expected TikTok to take share from META and GOOG ad budgets in 2026. The current view is that all three platforms are now growing in parallel.
North America Agency Expert A
1. TikTok ad budget trajectory
a. As of June 2025: 1Q25 +12% YoY, 2Q25 +24% YoY, 3Q25 forecast -15% YoY, 4Q25 forecast flat YoY.
b. As of October 2025: 3Q25 -16% YoY, 4Q25 forecast -5% YoY.
c. As of January 2026: 4Q25 flat 0% YoY, with the underlying monthly cadence of October 2025 -7%, November 2025 0%, December 2025 +6%, a sharp improvement. 1Q26 forecast +27% YoY, 2Q26 forecast +39% YoY, full-year 2026 expected to exceed +40%.
d. As of April 2026: 1Q26 +33% YoY, 2Q26 forecast +53% YoY, 3Q26 forecast +45% YoY, 4Q26 forecast +35% YoY. Full-year 2026 should come in well above the previous +40% expectation.
2. TikTok ban
a. “Last time we spoke, we thought the ban could be lifted but it wasn’t guaranteed. As you may recall, all of last year was a cycle of ‘about to be banned, then delayed, about to be banned, then delayed.’ That’s why a lot of advertisers weren’t taking TikTok seriously, since they were waiting to see whether the ban would actually be lifted. Once it was lifted, around the end of January, a meaningful number of advertisers said, ‘OK, TikTok is now safe; if I had pulled out, I need to come back,’ or they needed to start treating it more seriously by testing new ad products. So we essentially saw a surge in interest. That obviously helped 1Q a bit, but as you can see, the bigger upward revision came in 2Q because by then you have more advertisers and a full quarter of spend.”
3. TikTok’s impact on META and GOOG
a. There may be some impact, but it is hard to identify in the numbers. As we just discussed, the numbers look very strong. For Google, the relevant comparable would be YouTube.
b. Snapchat has clearly taken a measurable hit from TikTok. We think this is partly because Snapchat is simply a smaller platform and is more concentrated in the same demographic. The fact that we can measure the impact on Snapchat probably means Meta and YouTube are also seeing some pressure.
c. As I have said before, I never expected this to be more than a 1-percentage-point headwind to Meta or YouTube. Even if it is, it is hard to disaggregate. I have not heard a single advertiser say, “I’m spending more on TikTok, so I’ll spend less on Meta or YouTube.” That is generally not how it plays out. What you see instead is that whenever budgets refresh, more dollars flow toward TikTok.
d. The clearest loser is Snapchat, and I think Snapchat got hit twice. First, Snapchat was probably over-earning last year because many TikTok advertisers used Snapchat as part of their TikTok-ban contingency plan. Second, when TikTok surged, many advertisers put Snapchat on autopilot, saying they did not have time to think about it because they were focused on TikTok. So Snapchat took a hit. Meta and YouTube were probably also affected, but it is hard to measure.
